Leland Precincts By Age—Election Analysis
The Numbers are not Shocking
If you are, say, a young man who wants to start a family, or maybe you are already a young family with kids, where are you moving in Leland, assuming there is a based manufacturing plant, or a startup fabrication shop that makes (who cares, anything for the doing classes)?
I have been going through the detailed lists of all voters in Leland precincts. The only thing I paid attention to was age. Then I averaged the ages. It is those averages that I am going to focus on here.
There are 7 precincts in North Brunswick: NB1-7. NB1 usually does not vote in Leland elections, but I include them here, because they are important, and, are an area that will potentially be activated in the development of Leland, especially if they get annexed.
NB1 is essentially around the area of Compass Pointe and north of Northwest.
NB2 is essentially sandwiched between the 140 and the 74. So, also near and including part of Compass Pointe, including the golf course, etc.
NB3 is essentially off the 17 near Zion Church Rd, sandwiched in between Maco.
NB4 is essentially Waterford and Magnolia Greens, and surrounds.
NB 5 is essentially Leland proper, to the 74, up to Old Mill Rd, and surrounds.
NB 6 is BF
NB 7 is from the river to the BF border, and all the way down to Winnabow.
If you are a young family, you are going to be looking to build in NB1 (not in Compass Pointe…yuck), maybe outside of CP, but you might find some unincorporated and NO HOA land in NB2.
I should pause here and say, no young family wants a terror organization like an HOA near them. We need more developers here who frown on that crap. they do exist by the way, this is not a wish, if but Leland would, you know, pursue them.
NB 3 is promising for the young family, and so is NB7.
The rest are…shit. They are filled with Boomers, and honestly, Millenials and Zoomers loathe boomers for good reason. In Waterford there was an incident a few years ago where HOA board members verbally assaulted teenagers riding bikes, because they were teenagers...riding bikes. It was a shameful embarrassment of boomer entitlement. HOAs are not family friendly—it’s like the villages only in NC. So, out of consideration for young families are BF, Waterford, Mag Green, and Compass Pointe—not friendly to young families and expensive homes with great regulations. Young families like freedom not spying Boomer neighbors who are bored.
So the point is, any re-enlivening of Leland will include a growth in the precincts I mention.
The precinct numbers bear this out. Let’s look at average age:
NB1=50
NB2=55
NB3=47
NB4=59
NB5=47
NB6=65
NB7=49
The average age of eligible voters tell the tale, not just of where there is more opportunity, but also why the electorate turns out.
With the average age, as can identify some trends. 2025 election below:
Notice Leland Hyer won NB3, 5, and nearly won 7. He also came close in NB2, but so did everyone else.
Now let’s look at 2021 (as you know a serious person compares like to like elections).
Dunlap was the most conservative person in the race. She won, NB2, 3, 5, and 7.
Do you see a pattern?
The two precincts with the youngest average age of voters chose Dunlap in 2021, and Hyer is 2025. Hyer and Dunlap appealed to younger voters. While Dunlap won NB7, Hyer lost it, but came close.
The problem is…low voter turnout in precincts 2, 3, and 5…also 7 as I noted here. If those precincts turnout, Hyer would have gotten the largest number of the vote. It would not even be close. BF is in the middle on eligible voters—not many voters compared to others around them.
Pendleton turned out Boomers in NB4, and 6, and that is how he achieved the most votes. Now, that is not to say Hyer did not perform well in NB 4 and 6. He did. But Pendleton appeals to boomers more, the oldest precincts. Know who else did? Holloman. His smash in NB6 was the end. Heck he came in third in NB4, which should have been a warning sign to him he was always a weak candidate. McHugh won NB4 because….I have to say it, he speaks like a boomer and is VERY boomer minded. So, Boomers in 4 and 6 vote in greater numbers for a particular kind of candidate. There is no surprise here since NB4 and 6 are the most aged on average of all voters in all the other precincts.
What we see in NB4 and 6 comports to everything we know about voting—old people turn out to vote; young people do not usually. But a far greater number of voters reside in 2, 3, 5, and 7.
It is quite obvious from the data presented above that younger voters respond more to a particular kind of candidate than boomers do.
4 and 6 vote more or less the same with a few outliers in 4 that makes them not as settled into the predictable vote as 6.
If you are reading between the lines here, then you can SEE the MATH. Leland can be completely remade and there’s not one thing NB6 or 4 can do about it.
Two things need to happen though for that to be a reality, and it might be a heavy lift:
Turnout/canvassing: there needs to be a real and active organization on the ground in those low propensity precincts that trend a certain way for a certain voter.
Micro-targeting: if you know, you know, and almost every candidate is going to need to know to have a shot here.
There needs to be a quality candidate who speaks to their concerns. There should be no question what kind of articulate, attractive, not too damn polished, candidate that looks like if you look at 2021, and 2025.
A candidate who shows up in a suit to one of those precincts and says something like “I am one of you,” will be laughed out of the hall. I know, since I worked on a gubernatorial campaign in NC where one candidate I liked personally, wore impeccable suits—like not off the rack stuff. He was an impressive gentleman dresser. But, he went to a farming community between Charlotte and Winston Salem and, in his suit said, I am one of you. The crowd in overalls and Carhartt workwear audibly laughed. He got creamed in the primary.
There are exceptions: McHugh in his off the rack suit and tight deutschland haircut did well enough, in part because his vapid boomerspeak got those voters. Then again, his suits are off the rack, so….still the general rule applies here—suits fit some precincts and NOT others. But McHugh never said I am one of you, because he was proud he wasn’t. After all, he called citizens liars all the time.
Boomers are NOT going to run a candidate that appeals to 2, 3, 5, 7 in general. If one comes from them (and they are working on one coming from them now, so I am told), then they will run weak in those precincts. IF no candidate that appeals to those precincts run, the vote turnout will be crap, and maybe a few will vote for the least objectionable boomer.
None of this is to say that a broad coalition cannot be had, mine is only to point out the tendencies between the precincts. Those are real and factual. Boomers have interests that younger men and women do not. There’s nothing wrong with that.
But the future does not belong to the Boomers.
Act accordingly.